Though we, as always, assumed an automotive fiasco would change the entire market, many brands don’t have a choice but to push diesel offerings in US in order to stay on top of US fleet average needs (emissions and economy). Right now I’m noticing a general split of the sport focused brands moving towards wider offerings of diesel while the tech focused brands are offering more EVs. The brands that want to be in between seem to focus on hybrids.
This is just going to the end of the of the decade. I think by 2025 everyone will be going EV due to no other options. That means 2020 platforms need to be all electric capable across the entire board, whether offered or not. Pretty much, all these hybrids and diesels are filler in order to buy time for battery tech to progress to where it needs to be.
Diesel Centered Brands
Jaguar now offers the XE, XF, and F-Pace with diesels in the US. Over half their lineup, and in most cases the lowest priced models. Land Rover is without hybrids, so more diesels are on the way to the US.
Jeep, Ram, Maserati, and Alfa Romeo are definitely pushing diesel. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dodge also ends up going this route.
Mazda seems to want to go the diesel route. As a sport focused brand, this makes plenty of sense. The nice thing is that they can have such a huge fleet average that Rotary vehicles just need to avoid the gas guzzler tax.
Hybrid and Diesel Split Brands
I think GMC is going diesel. Cadillac, Buick, and Chevrolet seem to be split between going hybrid or diesel for the US. Everything is favoring hybrid just slightly more, but I think the offerings will be a fairly even spread.
Mercedes and BMW seem to be even between diesel and hybrids. These two brands in particular like to offer everything that way if market trends change, only half the lineup is hit. This avoids the Volkswagen situation of losing a majority of your lineup.
I have no idea what Rolls Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin, or Lamborghini will do. I actually thing the sport brands will go hybrid while the boating brands will avoid change...anything than petrol is a hard sell. I’m not sure how refined high powered diesels can be, and I’m not sure electric motors are effective at that weight level.
I think Fiat is another brand that might split the hybrid and diesel spread.
Hybrid Centered Brands
Obviously Volkswagen, Audi, and Porsche are switching to a hybrid/EV focus instead of the diesel focus they had before.
McLaren is without a doubt going hybrid without any hesitation.
Ferrari will go hybrid as well.
Chrysler will go hybrid focused.
MINI is likely to go hybrid, because electric go-karts are better than diesel go-karts.
smart will go hybrid.
The Japanese Three are all about that hybrid life. Toyota, Lexus, Honda, Acura, Nissan, and Infiniti are all in that game. Mitsubishi is focusing on hybrids, and even more so now that Nissan has a hand in it. Subaru says it wants to go hybrid, but they seem like such a diesel brand in my eyes. The Ee20 was so exciting to read about! I just like Subaru and Mazda staying different. Once upon a time you had the Inside Japanese Trio (Toyota, Honda, Nissan) and the Outside Japanese Quartet (Subaru, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Suzuki). Seems like Mazda will be the last of the quartet to stay “different.” The market is turning into Subie, so though they haven’t really changed much, they are becoming normal!
Ford and Lincoln are going hybrid, obviously.
Volvo is definitely going hybrid for the US.
Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis are definitely going hybrid/EV for the US.
Electric Centered Brands
Audi and Porsche could make a play for this market with the same success and actually cut out of the hybrid focus.
BMW’s “i” subbrand is pretty much made to be in this category, but BMW just needs to man up and go for it.
GM seems to favor this segment over the actual hybrids. I think the split will be more diesels and all electric vehicles and skip over hybrids.
I think every startup brand from here on will be trying for this market since Tesla is the only game.