Let’s do some basic damned math real quick regarding Tesla stock. Note: I’m not giving you investment advice, nor is this dumb social media post an endorsement of any action on any investment product (ARE YOU HAPPY NOW, NASD?!).
Ford stock is currently priced at $7.08/share. With approximately 3,978,390,000 outstanding shares, the company has a current market cap of right at $28,167,001,200. In all of 2019, Ford produced a total of 2,422,698 vehicles. If we divide the total current market cap by the total vehicles sold in 2019, the company is worth $11,626.29 per vehicle sold last year.
Tesla stock, in comparison, is currently priced at $1,521.60/share. With approximately 186,360,000 outstanding shares, the company has a current market cap of right at $283,565,376,000. In all of 2020 (current year used to reflect higher sales volume expectations), Tesla is expected to produce approximately 550,000 vehicles. If we divide the total current market cap by the expected total vehicle sales in 2020, the company is worth $515,573.41 per expected vehicle sold in 2020.
If we apply a value MORE THAN DOUBLE to what Ford’s market cap/vehicle sold is to Tesla’s numbers and reverse the formula:
$25,000 market cap/vehicles expected to sell in 2020
$25,000 x 550,000 vehicles = $13,750,000,000 current market cap
$13,750,000,000 / 186,360,000 outstanding shares = $73.78 stock price.
And now DIVIDE THAT BY FIVE, BECAUSE OF THE IMPENDING 5-1 STOCK SPLIT and you get a post split stock price of $14.76 per share. If the stock split happened right now, it would be $304.32 per share.
Now, some people might point to Tesla being more akin to a tech company than a car company, but if you apply P/E ratios of some of the top tech companies to Tesla stock, you get similar results. And considering that Tesla is primarily making vehicles right now and doesn’t have the parts business that Ford has (to counter the “Tesla makes batteries, too” argument)...
(Again, this is not advocating a position on any stock or investment vehicle, but is meant for educational purposes only).