I’m working on a market analysis in order to bring you all some new speculations. For those that don’t know, I consider myself an automotive branding and market enthusiast. Sometimes I post these preliminary glances before hitting you all with bigger posts on why come this happenin’ and other things that make you groan, just to show you that there is method behind the madness.

Nothing refined here since this is how I get started. However, I thought there were some interesting segment shifts that most journalists (and a few automakers) have not noticed.

2018 Hyundai Kona

Super-Subcompacts

*Same length as subcompact hatchbacks

  • Ford Ecosport (161") - $19,995
  • Kia Soul (163") - $16,200
  • Hyundai Kona (164") - $20,450

*This segment will expand in 2020 including a Jeep below the Renegade. This is also the segment I believe Toyota mistakenly quoted as AWD not being important, just style and efficiency. Unfortunately for them, the C-HR is one segment too high.

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2018 Nissan Kicks

Subcompacts

*Similar length to subcompact sedans

  • Jeep Renegade (167") - $18,445
  • Fiat 500X (167") - $19,995
  • Mazda CX-3 (168") - $20,110
  • Chevrolet Trax (168") - $21,000
  • *Buick Encore (168") - $22,990
  • Nissan Kicks (169") - $19,000
  • Honda HR-V (169") - $19,670
  • Toyota C-HR (171") - $22,500
  • Mitsubishi Outlander Sport (172") - $20,395
  • Nissan Rogue Sport (172") - $21,640
  • Kia Niro (172") - $23,340

*Buick included due to non-premium pricing (should be a GMC).

*Mini is a premium brand. Ref: Mini Countryman (170") - $26,600

*Jeep Wrangler 2-Door uses premium pricing. Ref: Sport (167") - $26,995

I want you all to think about how many of these nameplates didn’t exist 4 years ago. The reason why resale is currently poor for subcompact utilities is that most of the population is unfamiliar with these names and aren’t searching for them, yet. That said, expect every one of these vehicles to grow to over 173" in length because, “The most popular request of current owners is that they wish the car was a little bit bigger.”

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2018 Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (aka the Eclipxe)

Compact

*Similar length to compact hatchbacks

  • Jeep Compass (173") - $20,995
  • Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (173") - $24,290
  • Volkswagen Tiguan Limited (173") - $21,995
  • Subaru Crosstrek (176") - $21,795
  • Hyundai Tucson (176") - $22,550
  • Kia Sportage (176") - $23,600
  • Ford Escape (178") - $23,850
  • Mazda CX-5 (179") - $24,150

Notice that the actual “Compact” segment has been vacated.


2018 GMC Terrain

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Midsize

*Similar length to compact sedans

  • Honda CR-V (181") - $24,150
  • Subaru Forester (182") - $22,795
  • Jeep Cherokee (182") - $24,395
  • GMC Terrain (182") - $24,995
  • Chevrolet Equinox (183") - $23,580
  • Toyota RAV4 (184") - $24,510
  • Mitsubishi Outlander (185") - $23,945
  • Volkswagen Tiguan (185") - $24,595
  • Nissan Rogue (185") - $24,800
  • Hyundai Santa Fe Sport (185") - $24,950

The sales numbers of this segment are currently overinflated because shoppers are not familiar with the new, smaller nameplates. They are going for what they know (RAV4, CR-V) but will eventually spread out to other segments by 2020.

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2018 Subaru Outback

Midsize-Plus

*Similar length to midsize sedans / midsize wagons

  • Kia Sorento (187") - $25,900
  • Ford Edge (188") - $29,220
  • Jeep Wrangler Unlimited (188") - $30,495
  • Jeep Grand Cherokee (189") - $30,695
  • Subaru Outback (190") - $25,895
  • Toyota 4Runner (190") - $34,610
  • Nissan Murano (192") - $30,800

This is going to be a pretty cool segment because the market concentration is between $30,000 to $55,000 and upwards. That allows mainstream brands to offer high horsepower, or great materials, impressive designs, crazy tech, or true off-roaders. I can almost guarantee a Murano Nismo, Outback STi, and Ford Bronco will all appear within the next 4 years.

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2018 Dodge Journey

Fullsize

*Similar length to fullsize sedans 

  • Dodge Journey (192") - $22,795
  • Hyundai Santa Fe (193") - $30,850
  • Toyota Highlander (193") - $31,030
  • GMC Acadia (194") - $29,000
  • Honda Pilot (195") - $30,900

*Toyota Land Cruiser is a premium vehicle. Ref: TLC (195") - $84,315

This segment is probably going to die. Everything will bump up a segment to over 195" in length in order to handle three-rows and cargo space better. But if you ever wondered why the Dodge Journey is still moving then compare the entry price and size to the segments below. The true cheapest new car in the US.

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2018 Volkswagen Atlas

Fullsize-Plus

*Similar length to minivans

  • Volkswagen Atlas (198") - $30,750
  • Ford Explorer (198") - $31,990
  • Nissan Pathfinder (199") - $31,040
  • Mazda CX-9 (199") - $32,150
  • Dodge Durango (201") - $29,995
  • Chevrolet Traverse (204") - $29,930

I’m hoping that either these are getting asymmetrical sliding doors on just the passenger side or couple of the minivans will get lifts and be added to this segment. Either way would be sweet. This segment is becoming pretty cool.

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2018 Toyota Sequoia

Truck

*Similar length to midsize trucks (extended cab, short box)

  • Chevrolet Tahoe (204") - $47,500
  • GMC Yukon (204") - $49,100
  • Toyota Sequoia (205") - $48,300
  • Nissan Armada (209") - $46,090
  • Ford Expedition (210") - $51,695

I could see a few diesels coming. I think that’s really it for surprises.


2018 Ford Expedition

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Truck-Plus

*Similar length to midsize trucks (crew cab, long box)

  • Ford Expedition Max (222") - $54,385
  • Chevrolet Suburban (224") - $50,200
  • GMC Yukon XL (224") - $51,800

After this you pretty much get into van and small RV territory. But there is room at around 230" in length where an Excursion could be resurrected as a limited production vehicle. Yes, I’m being serious. Including the tow hook it would be the same length as the widely popular F-150 Crew Cab Short Box.

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I’ll knock out the premium and luxury brands next (Buick-Acura-Mini up to currently Bentley).