Manufacturers and Consolidation: A practical inevitability?

This post is inspired by a recent social media interaction with a friend who I consider both thoughtful and highly prescient. The discussion was spurred by the FCA/PSA merger. His take was essentially: “we will see way more of this.”

Basically his predictions were:

  • Europe will end up with one non-German automaker propped up by the French government, two German companies - VAG and Mercedes-BMW, and a few stray brands owned by Asian companies (Volvo, JLR, Ferrari).
  • The US will end up with GM and maybe Ford with Tesla either as a company or a captured brand
  • Japan will have Toyota and one other with whatever else survives rolled into one.
  • The Koreans will have one combined
  • China will have maybe two

That’s what he predicts is going to be it for large volume OEMs in the car business of the future and I can easily see this happening. What do y’all think? 

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