HOLY SHIT FORGOT THE JUMP.
I think that this is the breaking point for Trump. Conservatives are hating the Syria withdrawal. The government shutdown, which will be the longest in history, is showing some Trump voters exactly how big, good and important “big bad government” actually is, and 2019 is shaping up to be a break or make moment for 45.
He ran out of chances. If Trump doesn’t get the funding for the wall, he will face serious internal and external challenges to his re-election in 22 months.
On the other side of the border we just don’t know where we stand. This fuel shortage is hitting 10 states, the two largest cities, and many industrial powerhouses in Mexico. Some governors are warning of possible instances of violence and many counties don’t even have enough fuel for their patrol cars.
This is Obrador’s first big blunder and we don’t know how his popularity will be hit yet. The death of Puebla’s governor is also going to point to a very vicious couple of years of Mexican politics as state elections run past right till the 2021 midterms. Elections will be held yet again in Puebla in a few months and they’re gonna run the same guy that ran against the deceased governor.
Obrador’s self made fuel crisis might reflect badly on six key state elections coming up. Anyone would’ve guessed he’s more than ready to face the music given double-digit wins in 2018, but we just don’t know what will happen. As he comes in as a great reformer, having a stronghold on state assemblies is necessary to pass the constitutional amendments he wishes to impose, and this electoral season, even if local, might show us how hard the path will be for our President.