I’m sure many of you are bombarded by information about the virus, which is why I think that putting a buffer image is appropriate (I don’t intend to imply that anyone else should or that I will follow my own rule in the future :p )
Today the health secretary released their “true” estimation of COVID-19 cases in Mexico; using math and the epidemiological theory of sentinel surveillance, they concluded that the real number of cases in Mexico are 26,000 rather than 3200 confirmed cases as of today. They were quick to point out that the benefit of the sentinel model is that you can’t really get the total real number of cases even with mass testing, so it is vital to act on the estimated number of cases rather than the number of confirmed cases.
The undersecretary in charge of the daily press conference compared it to taking a blood sample as opposed to sampling every single droplet of blood. Mexico’s correction factor, then, is 8.2x more infected people than the tests could show.
They were also defensive about numbers in other countries, saying that those countries, like Mexico, usually publish confirmed cases rather than “estimated” cases. He then said that “if an imaginary country had 300,000 cases, chances are that country, in reality, has 3,000,000 cases”
Most businesses in Mexico have been shut down since the 30th of March, many schools ended in-person class around the 17th of March. Mexico City’s public transportation officials said they saw a 60-70% decrease in demand. Even though it’s not enforced by lockdown... it seems like a lot of people are staying home.