Always watch out for the pickup truck.
Every time it’s not apparent what is going to happen, just look for the pickup in the frame, and 900% of the time, that’s the vehicle which will be crashing. It’s not even always the truck driver’s fault - but somehow, as if by a curse, the crash will involve the truck.
It gets way harder to guess who will crash when no trucks are present.
But in that case it’s usually the closest thing to a truck present.